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Modeling Wildfire Under Climate Change

Edited by Alex W. Dye, John B. Kim, Peng Gao, Larissa Yocom, Karin L. Riley

Simulating wildfire into the future poses a special challenge because climate and fuels are likely to change, thereby altering fire frequency, size, and spread, and because of uncertainty arising from multiple climate change scenarios and global climate models that simulate them.

In this Fire Ecology special collection, we feature research that adjusts or modifies existing fire simulation methodologies or develops new modeling approaches to simulate wildfire under climate change scenarios, and research that explores and characterizes uncertainties. Studies featured are conducted at various spatiotemporal scales, and located around the globe.


  1. The Panxi region in China is among the areas that are most severely impacted by forest fires. Despite this, there is currently a lack of comprehensive and systematic research on the spatial and temporal distri...

    Authors: Jia Liu, Yukuan Wang, Haiyan Guo, Yafeng Lu, Yuanxin Xu, Yu Sun, Weiwei Gan, Rui Sun and Zhengyang Li
    Citation: Fire Ecology 2024 20:27
  2. Wildfire is a major proximate cause of historical and ongoing losses of intact big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities and declines in sagebrush obligate wildlife species. In recent decades, ...

    Authors: Martin C. Holdrege, Daniel R. Schlaepfer, Kyle A. Palmquist, Michele Crist, Kevin E. Doherty, William K. Lauenroth, Thomas E. Remington, Karin Riley, Karen C. Short, John C. Tull, Lief A. Wiechman and John B. Bradford
    Citation: Fire Ecology 2024 20:22
  3. Current assessments of the effects of climate change on future wildfire risk are based on either empirical approaches or fire weather indices. No study has yet used process-based models over national scales to...

    Authors: Rodrigo Balaguer-Romano, Rubén Díaz-Sierra, Miquel De Cáceres, Jordi Voltas, Matthias M. Boer and Víctor Resco de Dios
    Citation: Fire Ecology 2023 19:65
  4. Climate change is expected to increase fire activity across the circumboreal zone, including central Siberia. However, few studies have quantitatively assessed potential changes in fire regime characteristics,...

    Authors: Neil G. Williams, Melissa S. Lucash, Marc R. Ouellette, Thomas Brussel, Eric J. Gustafson, Shelby A. Weiss, Brian R. Sturtevant, Dmitry G. Schepaschenko and Anatoly Z. Shvidenko
    Citation: Fire Ecology 2023 19:33
  5. Wildfire is a major contemporary socio-ecological issue facing the people and natural resources of Southern California, and the prospect that a warming climate could lead to a higher probability of fire in the...

    Authors: Alex W. Dye, Peng Gao, John B. Kim, Ting Lei, Karin L. Riley and Larissa Yocom
    Citation: Fire Ecology 2023 19:20