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Advances in Mortality Forecasting

Within the field of mortality forecasting, various advances have taken place in the last few years. These advances have started with the development of many extensions and alternatives for the Lee-Carter model, including, for example, the functional data approach. Additional important advances include the further development of coherent or multi-population forecasting methods, which ensure that forecasts based on extrapolations do not lead to divergent outcomes. Another important advancement is the inclusion of epidemiological evidence in the mortality forecast, and the development of different approaches to do so. In addition, we have recently witnessed the use of different measures beyond age-specific mortality rates for the mortality forecast. In all this, it has become the golden standard to do probabilistic mortality forecasting and to validate the model used for mortality forecasting by means of in-sample forecasting.  This thematic series on “Advances in Mortality Forecasting” will deal with these recent advances in mortality forecasting, particularly research dealing with coherent mortality forecasting and with including additional epidemiological information in mortality. 

Edited by: Fanny Janssen

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